FXUS61 KILN 241438
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
938 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST AREA FROM TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WHERE SOME CLEARING OCCURRED OVERNIGHT ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
OHIO...AREAS OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPED DUE TO LOW LEVEL MSTR AND
LIGHT WINDS. WITH SUNRISE AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE SEEN A 
DIURNAL IMPROVEMENT TO THE VSBYS COMING ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA.
THEREFORE...HAVE UPDATED AND ALLOWED ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. NO CHANGES
TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FORECAST FOCUS IS ON THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION ONSET TONIGHT. MODELS
ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON MAIN FEATURES AND THEREFORE WENT WITH
A BLEND. SHORT WAVE WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH TUESDAY EVENING AND
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. GREATEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE FORCING. AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH COLDER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
WEDNESDAY. SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS WILL BE PRESENT FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON MAIN
FEATURES WITH ONLY SLIGHT VARIANCE IN DEGREE OF STRENGTH OF
SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR A COLD RAIN ON
THANKSGIVING HOWEVER RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BY
FRIDAY MORNING AS COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE FA. WITH UPPER LOW IN
THE AREA AND PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A HARD
TIME WARMING ON FRIDAY AND WILL ONLY MAKE IT TO AROUND 40 DEGREES.
THIS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR SOME LOCATIONS TO BRIEFLY TRANSITION
BACK TO RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY. AS
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO FALL FRIDAY NIGHT THERE WILL STILL BE SOME
RESIDUAL MOISTURE LEFT DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND LOCATIONS
STILL RECEIVING PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION BACK TO LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. DRY WEATHER WILL MAKE A RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE FA. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH
THE AREA FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS AND VISIBILITIES WILL ONLY SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE TAF PERIOD. APPEARS THAT ALL TERMINALS WILL NOT
BECOME VFR UNTIL 20-21Z. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS AND
A RETURN TO MVFR CEILINGS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY...AND IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE...
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...